piątek, 24 grudnia 2010

The Silver Ratio

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Friday December 24, 2010

Market Minute: A Sign of the End?

What Happened: A hedge fund announced plans to utilize Twitter updates as a '4th dimension' of its investment strategy.

What it Means: There is too much optimism in the markets, and too much easy money, if this fund successfully raised $25 million. If this fund is trusting 190 million Twitter users to measure sentiment, we aren't far removed from the 'dot com' excess of the late '90s.

Why it Matters: As we mentioned earlier this week, market sentiment is swinging too far to the bullish side for our liking. A correction is getting more likely.

Suggested Action:Pay close attention to your position sizing and stop losses.

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Profit Opportunity: The Silver Ratio

Yesterday, we introduced you to Porter Stansberry, the founder and director of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. He predicted the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and many of the corporate bankruptcies that occurred during the financial crisis. Now, he is predicting the collapse of the dollar. He says it is imminent... and investors need to prepare for it immediately.

Today, I am going to share with you three ways Mr. Stansberry says you can protect yourself as the dollar collapses.

History Repeats Itself

For most of history, there has been a consistent relationship between the price of gold and the price of silver. Called the "silver ratio," it's typically around 16-to-1 (i.e., the price of an ounce of gold will be 16 times the price of an ounce of silver).

From time to time, governments attempt to manipulate this figure, or a major silver discovery causes the ratio to fluctuate, but in free markets it eventually returns to about 16-to-1.

Gold is currently around $1,385 an ounce. So, based on the ratio, silver should be around $86 an ounce.

But it's not. It's only $29 an ounce.

That's a 47-to-1 ratio.

With the current ratio significantly out of whack, Mr. Stansberry recommends investing in "cheap" silver. If silver does get to $86 an ounce to bring the ratio back in line, you stand to make almost 200%.

Mr. Stansberry also believes that gold has a long way to go given the bout of inflation headed our way. He sees gold hitting $2,000 an ounce, at which time silver should be worth $125 an ounce. That would be a 331% gain based on today's prices.

But one of his currency experts, Chris Weber, says silver is likely to go even higher – to $187 per ounce.

That would represent a 545% gain for those astute enough to recognize the imbalance.

Some investors shun silver because it is an industrial metal and, therefore, they don't believe it is a reliable inflation hedge.

Yet over the last decade, silver has outperformed gold. Gold has gone from $256 to $1,385 an ounce, a 441% gain.

Silver has gone from $4 an ounce to $29 an ounce. That's a 625% gain.

So how should you go about investing in silver?

You could buy the silver ETF (SLV), Silver Wheaton (SLW), silver coins, or old silver currency.
Stansberry & Associates has put together a guide that details ways to hold silver yourself, where to safely store it, and much more for members of their Stansberry Investment Advisory newsletter. To get a copy of "Secrets of the Silver Market," click here…

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